Started: 4th January 2026
Finished: 7th January 2026
Summary
A thought experiment ("scenario") by political scientist Carlo Masala, professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich. Russia wins in Ukraine, keeps its occupied territories, and Europe fails to rearm. A few years later, Russia tests NATO's Article 5 commitment with a limited operation in Estonia. How does the NATO alliance react?
My Thoughts
I read this because Alastair Campbell recommended it on the podcast The Rest is Politics. At ~120 pages it's a quick read, and it does what it sets out to do: make you think about uncomfortable questions.
Would NATO be prepared to go to war? Under what circumstances? And what about Switzerland? Where are the actual red lines, and what happens when they're crossed? What about nuclear weapons? European countries have become accustomed to resolving conflicts through diplomacy and consensus. But at what point do we accept that diplomacy failed? And what do you do then?
Those questions stuck with me more than the book itself. The scenario follows a single linear path. Russia wins, Europe sleeps, NATO struggles to decide how to react. I would have found it more interesting if the scenario explored different branches and was something closer to a decision tree than a fixed narrative. The title also oversells what's inside. The end of the book gets to the start of "Russia winning", but the book stops before dealing with what that actually means.